China’s pledge to cap greenhouse gas output may curtail car-ownership dreams across the world’s most-populous nation, even as domestic auto sales are on pace to top a record 23 million vehicles in 2014.
The CHART OF THE DAY tracks annualcarbon emissions by the world’s two biggest economies, with China’s output almost doubling in the decade since U.S. levels began to fall, according to BP Plc statistics. The middle panel shows the ratio of cars to people, which the World Bankestimates was 69 per 1,000 people in China as of 2011 compared to 786 in the U.S. The lower panel shows the countries’ per-capita CO2 emissions in metric tons, based on Bloomberg calculations from the data.
About 7 percent of China’s greenhouse gas emissions currently come from the transport segment, versus 28 percent in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance from sources including U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Power generation accounts for almost half of China’s air pollution, compared with a third in the U.S.
“Imagine China being like the U.S., with one-quarter of emissions coming from cars — it would put huge pressure on the pledge to cap emissions,” said Jun Ying, lead China energy specialist at BNEF in Beijing. “It’s possible that China will have to slow the explosive growth in car ownership it saw in the past few years.”
President Xi Jinping for the first time set a target date for capping emissions under an agreement with U.S. President Barack Obama on Nov. 12. Xi committed China to begin reducing its total carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030. Obama’s new target for the U.S. is to cut greenhouse gas emissions at 26 percent to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025.
“China’s car ownership is very likely to double from the current level, but the growth rate will drop sharply due to congestion and pollution in big cities,” said Harry Chen, an automotive analyst in Shenzhen with Guotai Junan Securities Co. “China will have to promote more electric and hybrid cars to meet emissions standard as we forecast sales will grow at a mild 7 to 9 percent a year. Car ownership may peak at 200 cars per 1,000 people for China.”
source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-20/car-driving-dream-faces-china-s-carbon-reality-chart-of-the-day.html
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